That’s not how it works at all (part 1)…

… and the way I describe it below isn’t exactly the way it works, either. I’m talking about college admissions, and determining who gets accepted and who doesn’t. There’s no single way that explains how each university makes their selections, but what I outline below holds true for many of them.

In talking to parents lately I found quite a bit of disappointment with the families of Spring 2022 high school graduates – the college class of 2026. While there was relief that the ‘college process’ was over, many students (and parents) were upset and confused about not getting into some of the schools where they applied. I listened to their stories and frustrations and found that many were somewhat misinformed or confused about the numbers and how admission works. What I’ll outline below is NOT specific to any college, but paints a more realistic picture than what many students and parents thought. 

Let’s use the example of Fictional University (known as FU), a school that historically has the following statistics – 40,000 applicants, 40% admission rate, 50% matriculation rate, and an average GPA / ACT of 3.75 / 30. Each year they accept 16,000 applicants (40% of 40,000) and 8,000 of them (50% of 16,000) accept to enroll. And this is pretty consistent year after year. To be more simplistic, there are no students with “hooks” – no athletes, no band, no debate team, no applicants with parents who will donate millions to the school coffers. Unrealistic, but better for the discussion below.

What many people believe is that FU “ranks” each of these students based primarily on academic performance (GPA / ACT) from 1 to 40,000. They then make offers to the top 16,000 in the rankings. About half of these students who receive offers have a better GPA / ACT than the average of 3.75 / 30 (call this Group A), half of these 16,000 have a GPA / ACT a little lower than the average (call this Group B), and the 24,000 who were rejected (Group C) all had GPA / ACT even below that of group B. 

GROUP A = Slightly better than 3.75 / 30 = Population 8,000 - ALL ACCEPTED

GROUP B = Slightly lower than 3.75 / 30 = Population 8,000 - ALL ACCEPTED

GROUP C = More than slightly lower than 3.75 / 30 = Population 24,000 - ALL REJECTED 

This outline above very simple to understand. But very incorrect. What the applicant pool looks like may be much more like this. 

GROUP A = Slightly better than 3.75 / 30 = Population 12,000 

GROUP B = Slightly lower than 3.75 / 30 = Population 12,000 

GROUP C = More than slightly lower than 3.75 / 30 = Population 16,000 

Now remember, FU can only offer spots to 16,000 applicants because 50% will decline their offer. To the dismay of many parents, everyone in Group A doesn’t get accepted. It’s definitely NOT the case that all 12,000 from Group A are accepted along with the “best” 4,000 from Group B. More likely, it’s “some” of Group A, and “some” of Group B, and “some” of Group C. Yes, horror of horrors, some students with GPA / ACT well below average will be accepted, and some students with GPA / ACT well above average will get rejected. A student (your son/daughter) with 3.9 / 33 might be rejected, while their classmate with a 3.4 / 26 gets accepted. And this is because Fictional U, like many colleges and universities, uses the “holistic” process, and looks at much more than just grades and test scores for each student (as they all tell you in their glossy brochures and colorful websites).

We’ll go into more detail in our next post ….